Policy·October 21, 2026 at 4:42 PM EDT·2 sources
Billionaires fleeing California could turn a $30 billion tax windfall into a $39 billion loss, Stanford economists warn
Potential loss$39 billion
Projected tax windfall$30 billion
What happened
- Stanford economists warn that billionaire departures could turn a projected $30 billion California tax windfall into a $39 billion loss.
- A new NBER paper estimates departures have already erased nearly 30% of Prop 40’s tax base.
- The tax’s architects dispute the analysis, saying it assumes the losses will persist.
Projected tax windfall
$30 billion
Potential loss
$39 billion
Prop 40 tax base erased
nearly 30%
Why it matters
The dispute highlights potential fiscal, policy and revenue risks from high-net-worth taxpayer migration, relevant to advisers assessing California exposure and tax-policy scenarios.
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Timeline
- First reported by FortuneOct 21Billionaires fleeing California could turn a $30 billion tax windfall into a $39 billion loss, Stanford economists warn
- Business Insider reportsOct 22Billionaires fleeing California's wealth tax could cost the state more than the levy makes, Stanford economists say
Who is involved
Billionaires fleeing California could turn a $30 billion tax …CaliforniaNBERStanford economists
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Sources (2)
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