Research·October 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM EDT·8 sources
Moderna is about to release the trial results for its cancer vaccine. A lot is riding on this data.
MRNA -1.2%MRK
MRNA · last 30 trading days-17.3% since the news
News
Reported risk reduction by Financial Times58%
Reported risk reduction by STAT and BioPharma Dive42%
What happened
- Moderna and Merck’s Phase 3 personalized melanoma vaccine data were released after reports of an earlier leak.
- STAT and BioPharma Dive reported the treatment reduced recurrence or death risk by 42% versus standard treatment.
- The Financial Times reported a 58% reduction, highlighting a discrepancy among reports; shares of both companies fell after the leak.
Reported risk reduction by STAT and BioPharma Dive
42%
Reported risk reduction by Financial Times
58%
Trial phase
Phase 3
Why it matters
The results are a major test of Moderna’s cancer-vaccine strategy and Merck’s Keytruda combination, with implications for biotech valuation, oncology competition and healthcare investors’ expectations. The conflicting reported efficacy figures and sell-the-news reaction increase the importance of the full presentation and detailed endpoint data.
What to watch. Watch the full Phase 3 data presentation at the medical conference this weekend, including clarification of the differing reported risk-reduction figures.
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Timeline
- First reported by MarketWatchOct 21Moderna is about to release the trial results for its cancer vaccine. A lot is riding on this data.
- STAT reportsOct 22STAT+: What to expect from the Moderna-Merck cancer vaccine data reveal
- Bloomberg reportsOct 22Moderna, Merck Shares Fall After Possible Melanoma Data Leak
- CNBC reportsOct 22Moderna shares plunge after leak of partial cancer vaccine data
- Endpoints News reportsOct 22Data leak for Merck and Moderna’s therapeutic cancer vaccine
- BioPharma Dive reportsOct 22Moderna, Merck shares fall on eagerly anticipated cancer vaccine results
- Financial Times reportsOct 22Moderna shares sink after leaked cancer data missed expectations
- Ars Technica reportsOct 22Moderna and Merck say their mRNA cancer vaccine cut death, recurrence by 42%
Who is involved
Moderna is about to release the trial results for its cancer …ModernaMRNAMerck & Co.MRKKeytruda
Company
Sources (8)
- MarketWatchOct 21Moderna is about to release the trial results for its cancer vaccine. A lot is riding on this data.
- STATOct 22STAT+: What to expect from the Moderna-Merck cancer vaccine data reveal
- BloombergOct 22Moderna, Merck Shares Fall After Possible Melanoma Data Leak
- CNBCOct 22Moderna shares plunge after leak of partial cancer vaccine data
- Endpoints NewsOct 22Data leak for Merck and Moderna’s therapeutic cancer vaccine
- BioPharma DiveOct 22Moderna, Merck shares fall on eagerly anticipated cancer vaccine results
- Financial TimesOct 22Moderna shares sink after leaked cancer data missed expectations
- Ars TechnicaOct 22Moderna and Merck say their mRNA cancer vaccine cut death, recurrence by 42%
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